Completely Unnecessary

Luxembourg's economy minister held a press conference to warn that fuel supply could face disruptions in the coming weeks. Then he told everyone not to panic. The worst thing that could happen, he said, would be for the ministry to stay silent and people start worrying about whether they will have petrol tomorrow [1].

So naturally, he called a press conference to make sure everyone knows there might be a problem, while insisting there is no problem. The quote of the day: panic-buying is "completely unnecessary" because Luxembourg and its fuel suppliers have adequate reserves.

Three routes, two broken

Luxembourg gets its petroleum products by water, rail, and road. Two of those three routes are currently facing disruptions. The Rhine is so low that shipping is severely restricted. Major rail works are underway. And the recent fires in Belgium forced the temporary closure of the Albert Canal [1].

That leaves road as the only fully functional transport route, which is ironic because road depends on the fuel being delivered.

The reserves are fine, mostly

The minister stressed that Luxembourg has sufficient fuel reserves. Not all of them are stored within the Grand Duchy, which is an interesting detail. Up until about two years ago, it was fine to keep reserves in a single neighboring country. Then the law changed: reserves now have to be spread across at least two countries, because of exactly the kind of scenario where a motorway bridge collapses and you lose access to your supply [1].

That legal change is paying off now, according to the minister. Having your reserves in one place is fine until that one place becomes inaccessible.

What might actually happen

At worst, individual petrol stations might temporarily run out of diesel or petrol. The minister emphasized that any shortages would be isolated incidents, not a widespread supply problem [1].

This is a reasonable assessment. The supply chain is strained but not broken. The reserves exist. The logistics are difficult but not impossible. The main risk is not actual shortage but perceived shortage, which is why the minister spent most of his time telling people not to panic rather than explaining the logistics.

The communication paradox

There is something faintly absurd about a government press conference whose main message is "please do not react to this press conference." The minister himself acknowledged this: the worst thing would be for the ministry to fail to communicate, prompting people to worry. So the solution is to communicate, which makes people worry, and then tell them not to worry.

To be fair, this is better than the alternative. A government that says nothing and then petrol stations run dry is worse than a government that says "there might be minor disruptions, please do not panic." Transparency is the right call, even when the message is slightly contradictory.

But if you are filling up this weekend, maybe do not fill up three jerry cans at the same time. That would be completely unnecessary.