No-Go Zone

Iran said it attacked 20 vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on September 9, including two US military vessels, eight oil tankers, and 10 ships it described as "non-compliant." The same day, Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced an expansion of the maritime no-go zone beyond the strait into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.[1]

"If a vessel enters that area without coordination, it will be subject to our sanctions," said Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi on state television. The exact coordinates of the expanded zone will be announced later. Until now, Iran's blockade has been limited to the strait itself, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Traffic through the waterway has been virtually paralysed since Iran asserted control of it after the US-Israeli strikes that began the war in February.[2]

Expanding the prohibited zone into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea means Iran is claiming authority over shipping lanes far beyond the strait. These are international waters. vessels transiting between the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, even without entering the Strait of Hormuz, would fall under Iran's declared restrictions. The practical effect is to extend the blockade's shadow over a much larger area of ocean.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed that "several" vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf were "subject to disabling fire as part of ongoing military activity in the region." Iran's foreign ministry called the US destruction of five Iranian oil tankers on September 8 "an overt threat to regional and international peace and security" and described the targeting of US military facilities as "self-defence."[3]

Iran also struck a US military base in Jordan. Jordan's army shot down 18 missiles. Iran warned of further strikes targeting tankers off the coasts of Kuwait and Bahrain, two US allies in the Gulf.[4]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a visit to Colombia on September 8, said: "Iran continues to try to hit US naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they're going to lose tankers, and I think you'll see that again today." The US military said it "directed the crews to abandon ship" before destroying the five Iranian tankers on September 8.[5]

On the diplomatic front, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors voted on September 9 to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear "non-compliance." The resolution was adopted by 23 votes in favour, three against (Russia, China, Niger), and eight abstentions. This is the diplomatic equivalent of escalation: it moves Iran's nuclear file from the technical body that monitors compliance to the political body that can impose sanctions or authorize force.[6]

Iran's Revolutionary Guards laid out conditions to end the war. The list is expansive: Washington must "refrain from renewed threats, withdraw the Israeli regime's army from Lebanon, end the blockade of Yemen, release $24 billion in Iran's frozen assets, and refrain from any interference in the country's nuclear and missile capabilities." These are not conditions for a ceasefire. They are conditions for a reshaping of the entire regional order, and no US administration would accept them.[7]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on a visit to troops in southern Syria, repeated his claim that Iran's Islamic republic was "on the verge of collapse." "There is still work to be done," he said. "The main task is to bring down the terror regime in Iran. We are very close to that." Israel has occupied what it calls a "security zone" in southern Syria.[8]

Oil prices are above $100 per barrel. The strait that carries a fifth of the world's oil is blockaded. The no-go zone is expanding. The IAEA has referred Iran to the Security Council. Iran is attacking ships further from the strait than ever before. The conditions each side demands are incompatible. The war is not ending. It is widening.