Tankers

The United States destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday, sinking one, after Iran twice targeted an American warship. Iran responded by launching missiles at a US base in Jordan and claiming attacks on two US vessels and eight oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.[1]

Four of the tankers were struck in the Gulf of Oman. The fifth was hit near Kharg Island, where some 90% of Iran's crude oil exports pass through. The US said the tankers were "part of a multi-billion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies." One ship, the M/T Riesco, sank.

Jordan shot down 18 of 20 Iranian missiles aimed at the US base. The two that got through fell in unpopulated areas. No American troops were harmed, according to US Central Command.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards then claimed they had attacked two US vessels, eight oil tankers, and 10 "non-compliant vessels" trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is one of the most critical chokepoints for global oil shipping. Roughly 20% of the world's petroleum flows through it.

Oil prices rose immediately. Benchmark Brent crude was up 1.5% at $99.35 a barrel. US-traded oil was 1.3% higher at $94.23. This is not a minor market blip. This is the price of a war reaching the shipping lanes.

On the same day, Yemen's Houthi movement attacked energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people. Drone and missile strikes caused fires at oil installations and temporarily halted operations. The Houthis are backed by Iran. The attacks were not coordinated with the tanker strikes, but they compound the same problem: energy infrastructure in the Gulf is under assault from multiple directions.[2]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters during a trip to Colombia, was blunt: "Iran continues to try to hit US naval ships. And, for every time they do that or try to do that, they're going to lose tankers. And I think you'll see that again today."

The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, more than six months ago. The tit-for-tat has been escalating ever since. Each round is a little bigger, a little more destructive, a little harder to walk back. The US is sinking Iranian ships. Iran is shooting at US warships and bases. The Houthis are hitting Saudi Arabia. And the oil price is creeping toward $100.

There is no de-escalation track. There are no negotiations. There is only the next round.