Rock And A Hard Place

Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls this Sunday to elect a new state parliament, with current projections suggesting the Alternative for Germany (AfD), officially classified as a confirmed far-right party by the state's domestic intelligence services, could secure around 42% of the vote. The ruling coalition of the CDU, SPD, and FDP appears on the brink of collapse, raising the possibility of the AfD forming a government at the state level for the first time.

CDU caught between options

Election forecasts indicate the CDU will see its share of the vote fall from 37% in 2021 to around 23%, while the FDP risks missing the 5% threshold. An alternative three-party coalition including the Greens is only feasible if the Greens surpass the 5% bar. Even in this scenario, a minority government tolerated by The Left may be the only viable outcome.

Political scientist Marcel Lewandowsky concludes that the CDU is "between a rock and a hard place". The only way to avoid reliance on The Left would be for the CDU to join a coalition as junior partner to the AfD, a prospect that would severely test the party. Deep historical reservations persist within the CDU about any cooperation with The Left, given the party's roots as the successor to East Germany's former ruling party, the SED.