The Breaking Point

Thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday afternoon. The yellow heat alert has been extended until Wednesday, but MeteoLux says temperatures will gradually begin to fall after the storms. After highs of up to 35°C on Tuesday, Wednesday will still reach 34°C. Then the decline begins: 30-32°C on Thursday, 28-30°C on Friday, 25-27°C on Saturday. By Sunday, temperatures will reach no more than 20-22°C.[1]

Six days of yellow alert. An orange drinking water alert. Record-low river levels. A pine forest burned. Ten fires in one night. Eight more fires the next day. Crops curling in the fields. And now, a forecast that says it will end.[1]

The wind

There is a catch. The cooler conditions will be accompanied by strong north easterly winds, with gusts of 40 to 50 km/h possible during the day. This could pose a significant risk in the event of a fire, as strong winds can cause flames to spread more rapidly.[1]

The heatwave is breaking. The fire risk is not. The country has been dry for two months. The ground is parched. The vegetation is brittle. Thunderstorms will bring some rain, but a few litres per square metre will not undo weeks of drought, as the farmer in Ell noted. And when the wind picks up, any fire that starts, from a discarded cigarette, a spark from a train, a lightning strike from the storms themselves, will spread faster than it would have before the heatwave began.[1]

The arc

The heatwave cascade has moved through the country in a clear sequence. Classrooms at 35°C. Signals failing. Water restrictions. Blue-green algae. A forest fire. Ten fires overnight. Eight fires the next day. Record-low water levels. A ban on river extraction. Crops dying in the fields. A farmer calculating whether he will have enough feed for the winter. A finance minister revealing that a €400 million inheritance helped fund the national budget.[1]

The arc is not over. The thunderstorms will come. The temperatures will drop. The wind will pick up. And somewhere in the country, in a dry field or beside a railway track, a spark could become a fire that the wind carries further than it would have a week ago. The breaking point of a heatwave is not the moment the temperature drops. It is the moment the last fire is out and the last crop is harvested and the last river is back to its normal level. That moment is not Sunday. That moment is weeks or months away.[1]