One Hundred and Nine Point Eight

The Council of Europe released its annual penal statistics on Tuesday. Across 46 member states, 1,107,921 people sit behind bars. Luxembourg held 749 of them on 31 January 2025, a prison population rate of 109.8 per 100,000 inhabitants. That sits almost exactly on the European median of 110. The number itself is unremarkable. The change is not.[1]

Luxembourg's prison population jumped 20% in a single year. That is one of the fastest growth rates in Europe. The Council of Europe study is careful to note that general population growth, including immigration, could be a factor. But a 20% increase in incarceration does not happen just because more people live in the country. Something else is going on.

The foreign majority

The most striking figure is not the growth rate. It is the composition: 78.1% of Luxembourg's inmates are foreign nationals. Nearly four in five people locked up in Luxembourg do not hold a Luxembourgish passport. That is the highest foreign inmate ratio in Europe by a significant margin, and it raises questions that the statistics alone cannot answer.

Are foreign nationals committing more crimes, or are they being policed more aggressively? Are they receiving the same legal representation as citizens? Are they being held pre-trial at higher rates because they lack local ties that courts consider when granting bail? The data does not distinguish. But the disproportion is extreme enough that the question demands attention.

What they are in for

Theft-related offences account for 26.2% of incarcerations. Drug offences follow at 16.7%, and homicide at 14.1%. The theft number is worth thinking about in a country where the poverty rate, while lower than the European average, still affects roughly one in six residents. Property crime and poverty have a well-documented relationship. When 20% more people end up in prison in a single year, and a quarter of them are there for theft, the question is not just about policing. It is about what happens before the crime.

The long view

There is a caveat. The 20% jump looks alarming, but the longer-term trend tells a different story. Luxembourg's prison population rate has actually fallen 28% since 2005. The COVID-era dip was sharp, and the current numbers may partly reflect a return to pre-pandemic baselines rather than a new crisis.

But context does not erase the present. Schrassig, where most of these 749 people are held, was already described by its own guards as unsafe two weeks ago. Yesterday, the government announced a renovation. Today, the European data confirms that the population behind those walls is growing faster than almost anywhere else on the continent.[2]

A renovation addresses the building. It does not address why 20% more people ended up inside it. It does not address why 78% of them are foreigners. It does not address why a quarter of them are there for theft in one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

The rate is 109.8. Median for Europe. The story behind it is anything but.[3]